UK Club Live Webinar (Series 24): Can you train for a Black Swan Event?
On Thursday 7th April the Club hosted a webinar with CAE, the global leader in civil aviation training, for the discussion ‘Can you train for a Black Swan Event?’
The reliance on model-based risk management techniques does not work well in the presence of highly volatile, high-impact and very low probability events. While this type of risk management can be very effective within the parameters of the predictable series of events, it can lead to complacency when people are tasked with operating the system they believe sufficiently equipped for anything. A fixed model considers the “known unknowns”, but ignores the “unknown unknowns”. More generally, decision theory, which is based on a fixed universe or a model of possible outcomes, ignores and minimizes the effect of events that are “outside the model”.
During the webinar, the following topics were discussed
- How do we define a Black Swan Event?
- Can human behaviour and performance be predicted?
- Is it possible to train for a Black Swan Event?